Although predicting the future is a very iffy thing, I agree with your analysis. But I think nearly everyone is overlooking what could be the gigantic factor that propels Biden and the Democrats to a bigger than anyone expects victory: the justifiable fury that women—in all 50 states—feel over the repeal of Roe and the fact that they no longer own their bodies, that clumps of cells inside of them have rights, but they do not.
I think very few people will vote FOR Biden. But a groundswell of voters, the biggest perhaps we’ve ever seen, will be voting against Trump and the GOP and especially the Supreme Court and result in an astounding Blue Wave.
Roevember may be coming. I think even some very red states will go to the Democrats.