Of course anything could happen, but for me the 2024 election looks something like the 2022 election. As you remember, polls and pundits predicted a red wave. That never happened. Instead the Democrats sharply outperformed expectations.

It wasn’t love for the Democrats. It was disgust with the GOP.

Unless women fail to turn out on Election Day, I see a gigantic blue wave with Biden trouncing Trump in the low double digits.

Only one issue will be a major factor in this election: women’s reproductive rights. Women everywhere are justifiably furious about the repeal of Roe, and the aggressively cruel misogyny of the GOP.

The economy, Gaza and everything else will have no noticeable effect. Women are more than half the electorate and this issue isn’t an abstraction. This is as personal as a political attack can get—control of their bodies.

I expect even one or two deeply red Southern states to end up in Biden’s column.

Personally, my main concern for the world today is the climate. But honestly, very few voters will vote based on that.

This is the year of women. Expect slim Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate. Oh, and some violence from childish yahoos with guns.