The most recent election—2022—MAGA underperformed. 2016 and 2020 are old news. Women everywhere are furious about Trump and the repeal of Roe v. Wade. And its helpful that Trump himself pissed off Puerto Ricans right before Election Day.

The polls in swing states have both candidates within the margin of error. And the shifts aren’t momentum—that’s random variation.

That’s not politics. Just statistics.