This is a interesting project.

A few thoughts:

1. Personally, I am with Yogi Berra on the subject of predictions. He said predictions are very difficult—especially about the future. ;-)
2. The most recent election underestimated Democrats, not the GOP. In 2022, a Red Wave was predicted. It did not happen.
3. It’s more important to MAKE the future than to predict it. I am working hard for Harris and doing my best to affect events, not just watch them.
4. I think there’s a real possibility that, in 2024 as in 2022, polls and predictions are underestimating the anger of women over the repeal of Roe—everywhere, including Red States. IF that’s true, then Trump could be walloped. If not, it’s probably a tossup.
5. I believe that women in Red States who are for Harris are very, very quiet about it because they fear the anger of their abusive misogynist husbands and others.

That said, I think your analysis and project is very interesting and useful. It’s clear that polling is more difficult than it once was. I believe pollsters are working hard to correct errors, but getting a meaningful sample of likely voters has become exceedingly tough.